What is the likelihood that the US will go to war with China soon? Cabestan’s volume starts and ends with the “Thucydides Trap,” assessing the relevance of the fifth-century (BC) war between Athens and Sparta to China's grand strategy as a rising power seeking to displace the hegemon, the US. Two chapters treat the rise of nationalism and military power in China and internal debates over the risks of war. Three chapters view probable scenarios of China-US conflict: over Taiwan, in the South China Sea, and over the Senkaku Islands. Another considers Sino-Indian border tensions and conflict on the Korean peninsula. Cabestan believes these flash points are not likely to erupt, given China’s reluctance to use force to solve territorial issues. More likely are continued “gray zone tactics” until the People’s Liberation Army can project force easily to nearby and distant targets. For the next decade or so, Cabestan predicts a “cold peace” between the US and China. His volume is among the best in the flurry of books discussing China-US struggles because of its skillful analysis of China-US conflict and attempted even-handedness in treating complex cases like Taiwan. Highly recommended. Advanced undergraduates through faculty; professionals; general readers.

Choice Reviews

In this systematic study, veteran China scholar Jean-Pierre Cabestan digs deep into different potentialities for conflict on China’s periphery—vis-à-vis Taiwan, Japan, India, Southeast Asia, and the United States. This is a study of both calculations and capabilities. The author demonstrates how, in each case, real conflict could erupt—due to a potent combination of mutual misperceptions and miscalculations, China’s revanchist nationalism, provocations, or unintended accidents. A significant contribution to the literature on Asian security.

David Shambaugh, George Washington University

Jean-Pierre Cabestan gives an excellent overview of key areas with regard to China’s current security approach. It addresses several potential conflicts, from Taiwan to the South China Sea and the Senkaku islands, and the Sino-Indian border. It is not trying to be exhaustive but focuses on critical areas. The best part is without a doubt the chapter on Taiwan, a territory the author knows well. Cabestan is good at presenting materials in a clear and pedagogical manner.

Philippe Le Corre, Senior Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute, Center for China Analysis

Jean-Pierre Cabestan’s Facing China isan important work. He examines China’s national security policies from the inside out, looking first at how China’s officials and scholars define and debate national interests and whether China can effectively advance those interests with military power. Cabestan then applies his analytical template to three theaters: Taiwan, Japan, and India. His balanced judgments should be a part of any discussion of China’s future trajectory.

Richard C. Bush, Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution

Will China and America soon be at war over Taiwan? Many hawkish elites in both countries think so, and they have considerable domestic power in both governments - though they might be wrong. Jean-Pierre Cabestan has deep knowledge of Taiwan, mainland China, and America too. He surveys the whole Asian landscape around China, including India and Japan. He assesses the applicability (or not) of "Thucydides trap" warnings that predict conflict between the world's two most powerful militaries. Everyone who is interested in the future should read this book.

Lynn T. White, Princeton University

Veteran China scholar Jean-Pierre Cabestan provides a masterful and lucid assessment of the prospects for conflict with China. Going beyond the familiar ‘Thucydides trap’ analyses, he persuasively evaluates both the most obvious and some of less evident possible pathways to war between China and its neighbors and, in turn, the United States.

Jacques deLisle, Director, Center for the Study of Contemporary China, University of Pennsylvania