Skip to main content

Random Dictatorships

Unpredictability of Authoritarian Politics in Eurasia

Random Dictatorships cover

Random Dictatorships

Unpredictability of Authoritarian Politics in Eurasia

Quantity
Pre-order. Available Mar 05 2026
$126.36 RRP $157.95 Website price saving $31.59 (20%)

Payment for this pre-order will be taken when the item becomes available

Description

Post-Soviet Eurasia continues to puzzle observers, defying expectations of experts. Most Russia watchers failed to predict the full-scale invasion against Ukraine in 2022, and this failure triggered intensive debates and multiple rounds of self-reflection. Random Dictatorships: Unpredictability of Authoritarian Politics in Eurasia argues that the supposedly unexpected turns of Eurasian politics are a manifestation of a deeper phenomenon – researchers' limited ability to predict the policymaking in authoritarian regimes in general. Alexander Libman identifies three main factors making authoritarian politics difficult to predict: mistakes of authoritarian leaders, untransparent competition of elite factions, and omnipresent secrecy cultivated by autocrats. While scholars oscillate between two visions of authoritarian regimes – their presentation as highly rational and capable to adapt and as highly inefficient and doomed to poor performance – Libman suggests that many autocracies alternate between these two extremes in a difficult-to-predict fashion. The book explores three important cases from the post-Soviet Eurasia, when autocracies of this region defied expectations of external observers – Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Bloody January in Kazakhstan in 2022 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It discusses the reasons for the apparent unpredictability of autocracies in each of these cases, and identifies implications for how authoritarian regimes should be studied.

Table of Contents

List of figures
List of tables

Introduction
1. The Autocrats' Goals
2. Mistakes
3. Secrecy
4. Informal Coalitions
5. Sovietology and the Collapse of the Soviet Union
6. Annexation of Crimea
7. Bloody January in Kazakhstan
8. Russia's Full-Scale Invasion to Ukraine
Conclusion
References
About the Author

Product details

Bloomsbury Academic Test
Published Mar 05 2026
Format Ebook (Epub & Mobi)
Edition 1st
Extent 240
ISBN 9781978764729
Imprint Bloomsbury Academic
Illustrations 2 figures and 5 tables
Publisher Bloomsbury Publishing

About the contributors

Author

Alexander Libman

Alexander Libman is professor of Russian and East…

Related Titles

Environment: Staging