CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS III
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
The United States Recognizes Great Power Competition in the Arctic 1
Russian Military Developments in the Arctic Pose the Most Significant Challenge to U.S. National Security 2
Understanding the Implications of China’s Growing Maritime Presence in the Arctic 3
Arctic Energy and Economic Developments 4
Mapping America’s Return to the Arctic 5
1. INTRODUCTION 8
Revitalizing the Red Arctic 8
Background: Separating Arctic Fact from Fiction 10
Russian Visions for the Arctic 12
Russia’s Military Vision for the Arctic 13
Chinese Visions for the Arctic 15
Implications for the United States 20
2. NEAR-PEER COMPETITOR MILITARY POSTURE IN THE ARCTIC TO 2050: THREE SCENARIOS 25
Russian Military Scenarios 25
Baseline Plus: A2/AD and Power Projection 27
China’s Dual-use Military Strategy for the Arctic 30
A Collaborative Sino-Russian Arctic Military Strategy 32
3. ARCTIC ECONOMIC DYNAMICS TO 2050 34
4. MAPPING AMERICA’S RETURN TO THE ARCTIC: HOW TO RESTORE U.S. PRESENCE AND LEADERSHIP TO A STRATEGIC REGION 41
The Arctic Equation: Presence Equals Influence 41
Pillar 1: Increasing U.S. Diplomatic and Security Presence in the Arctic 42
Pillar 2: Strengthening Science, Research, and Sustainable Economic Opportunities 43
CONCLUSION 44
ABOUT THE AUTHORS 45
APPENDIX: SCENARIOS FOR ARCTIC HYDROCARBON DEVELOPMENT TO 2050 46